The Future of Energy - Prospective Scenarios on EU-Russia Relations

This book presents the main conclusions reached by the academic project “Geopolitics of Gas and the Future of the Euro-Russian Relations (Geo4GER).” This project is being developed at IPRI — Portuguese Institute of International Relations, NOVA University, an academic research institute dedicated to advanced studies in Political Science and International Relations, of NOVA University of Lisbon, Portugal.

Energy security is a key issue on the international political agenda, a prerequisite for political stability and economic development and an indivisible part of a state’s overall security. For Europe, the high-energy insufficiency is a major challenge, given its dependence on external sources, especially from Russia, the lack of diversification of energy sources, and the poor branch of its transmission network. For Russia, energy has been a geopolitical factor of power and a potential strategic vector to its re-emergence as a great power in the international system.

However, in terms of energy, Russia also faces some long-term challenges, given the fall of its production and the low competitiveness of its gas, which is currently saved from the market where competition can hardly enter. Given this scenario, and also the increasingly important role in the political and strategic discussion of energy issues between Europe and Russia, it becomes relevant to diagnose the past and the present to forecast the medium and long term future (2030), taking into account the expected changes in the geopolitical and energetic environment, and the characteristics and dynamics of European-Russian relationship, including its energy interdependence and the energy policies and strategies outlined by Europe and Russia.