Global Catastrophic Risks

* Chapters from leading experts and thinkers covering some of the biggest risks facing the world today * Covers astronomical and Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, and social collapse * Highly topical area with frequent media coverage * Addresses the key methodological, ethical, and policy issues arising from the study of Global Catastrophic Risks * Includes a comprehensive introductory section A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields. Readership: A must-read book for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics and professionals working in these highly topical areas. Readers of popular science.

Acknowledgements Sir Martin J. Rees: Foreword Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Cirkovic: Introduction I Background Fred C. Adams: Long-term astrophysical processes Christopher Wills: Evolution theory and the future of humanity James J. Hughes: Millenial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats Eliezer Yudkowsky: Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks Milan M. Cirkovic: Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks Yacov Y. Haimes: Systems-based risk analysis Peter Taylor: Catastrophes and insurance Richard A. Posner: Public policy towards catastrophe II Risks from Nature Michael R. Rampino: Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import William Napier: Hazards from comets and asteroids Arnon Dar: Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment III Risks from Unintended Consequences David Frame and Myles R. Allen: Climate change and global risk Edwin Dennis Kilbourne: Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future Eliezer Yudkowsky: Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk Frank Wilczek: Big troubles, imagined and real IV Risks from hostile acts Robin Hanson: Catastrophe, social collapse, and and human extinction Joseph Cirincione: The continuing threat of nuclear war Gary Ackerman and William C. Potter: Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril Ali Nouri and Christopher F. Chyba: Biotechnology and biosecurity Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder: Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk Bryan Caplan: The totalitarian threat Author's biographies Index